Whatever your most pressing decision is: Here is a good system for evaluating risk!
Best/Worst Analysis
B/WA Formula
Notes taken from the book by Ben Carson,
TAKE THE RISK: Learning to Identify, Choose, and
Live with Acceptable Risk.
I would summarize one of the most
important insights I took from the book as “How to make decisions without
leaving God out of the equation!
Risk Analysis Process
You can print this and use as a template for decision making.
Questions to ask when making a decision:
What is the best thing that can happen if I do
this?
What is the worst thing that can happen if I do
this?
What is the best thing that can happen if I
don’t do it?
What is the worst thing that can happen if I
don’t do it?
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The rest of this post are My comments on his 4 questions.
Ask these questions in light of the following:
Outcomes may change over time because of changing
conditions!
Who?
What?
Where?
When?
How?
Why?
Answering these familiar queries in the context of the four
basic Best/Worst Analysis questions will sharpen the focus and refine the
accuracy of any risk analysis process
WHERE
Where are you going? (Your goals)
Where are you now? (Your skills, your abilities, your
thinking, and your attitudes)
Where will you start? (Your preparation)
WHEN
Often the timing of a Best/Worst Analysis affects our
conclusion.
Always do a B/WA again whenever you think something has
changed significantly: a year later, at a different point in life, or maybe
after pondering some of these who, what, when,
how, and why considerations. Times change. So do circumstances.
Sometimes those changes will affect your Best/Worst Analysis, modifying your
thinking-maybe even reversing your decision.
HOW
You don’t have to address who, what, where, when, how, and
why in any particular order. They may
need to be viewed simultaneously because they sometimes complement each other
or need to be combined.
Sometimes answering one of the (how or?) conclusions may
change your risk-analysis equation entirely.
WHY
It is impossible to do an effective B/WA without considering
why. You need to examine, and often re examine, your reasoning in light of your
motives, which involve your personal values.
Your values must be weighed carefully against you’re analyses and
conclusions.
Some Truths About RISK
1.
Everything is Risky
2.
The more we know, the more we worry.
3.
A Lot of Risks Aren’t
Worth the Worry.
4.
We Can’t Eliminate All Risk
5.
Minimizing Risk Is Often the Best We Can Do.
6.
Each of Us Has to Decide What the Acceptable Risks Are
7.
Not All Risks Are Bad
8.
We Are All Going to Die of Something Eventually
Risk Number One-Thinking in New Ways
Risk Number Two-Weighing the Alternatives
Risk Number Three-Making Your Own Decision
Even when the Best/Worse Analysis doesn’t result in a
particularly positive outcome, you are unlikely to have a worse outcome because
you did the analysis, and what a B/WA does guarantee is that you consider the
various possibilities in a reasonable, logical manner before making any
uncertain or risky decision. That has to improve the odds that you come up with
a happy solution-or at least with a reasonable and defensible course of action
that will minimize the risk of regrets.
Need to weigh risks in light of my beliefs and my values. My
obligations to others should be greater than any obligations to myself.
Since I believe God’s guidance and provision has
brought me to this point, I should ask Him to open the doors He wants me to
walk through and to give me wisdom in how to proceed.
Importance of using my talents and not allow minor
interferences to derail my mission
if life.
Creativity requires risk, so does exploration and
innovation. Anyone who thinks outside the box is taking a risk.
In doing this risk analysis, one needs to consider the
implications of any decision, not just for one’s self but for other people. How
will my decision impact others?
Taking Us Out of the Middle
Once we manage to remove our egos from the equation, many of
the most commonplace and unsettling personal risks we face in life become a lot
less personal and no longer seem to be much of a risk after all. That discovery frees us up to better
concentrate on dealing with the real risks presented by truly important issues.
A few added thoughts: "Destiny is not a mystery. For better or worse, your destiny is the result of your daily decisions and defining decisions." Mark Batterson. The Circle Maker.
"Along with daily decisions, there are defining decisions. We only make a few defining decisions in life, and then we spend the rest of our lives managing them." Mark Batterson. The Circle Maker.
A few added thoughts: "Destiny is not a mystery. For better or worse, your destiny is the result of your daily decisions and defining decisions." Mark Batterson. The Circle Maker.
"Along with daily decisions, there are defining decisions. We only make a few defining decisions in life, and then we spend the rest of our lives managing them." Mark Batterson. The Circle Maker.
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